Talkin Sport - Premier League 2008/09

It’s almost here – 16th August is the magic date when the Barclays Premier League 2008/09 season kicks-off and eager punters have already traded millions on the outright market.

Defending champions Manchester United are the pre-season favourites as they look to win three in a row for only the second time in Premiership history (they achieved it from 1998 – 2001). Sir Alex Ferguson’s men are closely followed by runners-up Chelsea, with Arsenal & Liverpool available at slightly bigger prices.

As you would expect, the big four dominate the betting and Tottenham are the only other side under three figures (even they are out at 66/1). It’s easy to see why: Everton (4th in 2004/05) are the only other side to have finished in the top four for the last 5 seasons.

So for sake of ease we will focus on the four superpowers, as it is still impossible to see anyone else breaking their grip on the higher echelons of the table. As reigning Premier League & European Cup holders, Manchester United are worthy favourites, having won the domestic title two years in a row with respectable points tallies of 89 & 87. Adding the Champions League last season is testament to their awesome strength in depth and with the possible addition of Dimitar Berbatov (10/1 to top score), they will surely be there or thereabouts come squeaky bum time in May.

Chelsea pushed United to the final game of last season and have been the most consistent domestic side of recent years (over the last 5 seasons their average points tally is 86.6, the highest in the league). The appointment of Luis Felipe Scolari is a big unknown, but they have an experienced squad who know how to win titles.

Arsenal improved massively last season and led the league for long periods before just falling short at the final hurdle. They jumped from 67 points (2005/06) & 68 points (2006/07) right up to 83 last term and with another year under the belt of Arsene Wenger’s young side, they will be dangerous.

Liverpool have been European Cup specialists in recent times, making the semi-finals in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and as a result their league form has never been up to scratch. Another below-par 76 point return last season disappointed Benitez but he has strengthened wisely again this summer and it would be foolish to dismiss them entirely.

At this stage, we think the best value lies in backing Arsenal on the exchanges with the view to trading out at around Christmas. Since the ‘Invincibles’ 90 point season of 2003/04, the Gunners slipped badly down to 83, 67 & 68 points over the next 3 years. But last season saw another 83 point haul, only 4 points off the winners, and Wenger’s men were leading going into the New Year until their fragile squad faltered. Granted, they have let Hleb, Flamini & Gilberto go, but Samir Nasri & Abou Diaby are more than able deputies for the first two and Silva was absent from most of the league games last term anyway. Theo Walcott & Aaron Ramsey should play big roles as well and so long as they can keep Emmanuel Adebayor, the squad actually looks stronger than last season. They have by far the easiest early fixture list (they don’t face a big four club until November while the others play a superpower at least once in the first five games) and last season they crucified their easy opening matches, taking 13 points from a possible 15 early doors.

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